Star Starachowicevs
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 9/26/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Siarka Tarnobrzeg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Star Starachowice 0-1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Star Starachowice 4-1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Original prediction
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 34.8% | 25.5% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.1% | 27.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 39.1% | 46.9% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Projected Score
Star Starachowice 0–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60