Star Starachowicevs
Korona Kielce II
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Star Starachowice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Star Starachowice 4-1 Korona Kielce II
Original prediction
Star Starachowice
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.8% | 42.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.5% | 20.4% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.7% | 37.0% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Star Starachowice
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Star Starachowice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80