Stal Rzeszówvs
Polonia Warszawa
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/5/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stal Rzeszów 2-1 Polonia Warszawa
Original prediction
Polonia Warszawa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.16 | 28.8% | 25.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.8% | 25.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 45.4% | 49.0% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Warszawa
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Polonia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40