Stal Rzeszówvs
Lechia Gdansk
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lechia Gdansk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stal Rzeszów 1-2 Lechia Gdansk
Original prediction
Lechia Gdansk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.5% | 31.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 27.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 41.0% | 40.4% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Lechia Gdansk
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Lechia Gdansk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20