Stal Mielecvs
Warta Poznań
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warta Poznań · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stal Mielec 2-1 Warta Poznań
Original prediction
Warta Poznań
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.7% | 29.5% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.1% | 26.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 40.2% | 44.0% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Warta Poznań
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Warta Poznań has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20