Stade Nyonnaisvs
FC Aarau
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 10/9/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Aarau · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stade Nyonnais 2-1 FC Aarau
Original prediction
FC Aarau
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.31 | 17.2% | 16.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.60 | 19.8% | 18.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.45 | 63.0% | 64.8% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Aarau
Probability
64.8%
Model confidence
64.8%
FC Aarau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 17 · avg 0.80/3.40
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40