Stade Brestois 29vs
Paris Saint Germain
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 9/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris Saint Germain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain
Original prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.16 | 9.3% | 37.5% | 28.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.23 | 15.3% | 22.4% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 1.26 | 75.4% | 40.1% | -35.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-35.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Paris Saint Germain
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Paris Saint Germain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60