Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vindbjart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stabæk II 3-1 Vindbjart
Original prediction
Vindbjart
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.29 | 21.0% | 32.9% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.54 | 19.8% | 24.0% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 59.2% | 43.1% | -16.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Vindbjart
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Vindbjart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Stabæk IILWLWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VindbjartWWWLW
GF 20 · GA 6 · avg 4.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Stabæk IIVindbjart
50.0Attack74.4
50.0Defence37.2
50.0Form48.7
50.0Power53.4
2.52xG2.57