Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stabaek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 5-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stabaek 2-2 Strommen
Original prediction
Stabaek
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 66.6% | 68.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.05 | 18.2% | 16.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 6.00 | 15.3% | 14.8% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.5–18%
Predicted outcome
Stabaek
Probability
68.3%
Model confidence
68.3%
Stabaek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StabaekLWLLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
StrommenDLDLW
GF 9 · GA 17 · avg 1.80/3.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
StabaekStrommen
79.2Attack52.8
56.9Defence23.6
62.5Form36.1
64.9Power39.5
4.25xG1.18