Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stabaek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (10%), 5-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stabaek 2-1 Sogndal
Original prediction
Stabaek
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 69.7% | 81.2% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 6.59 | 14.0% | 8.3% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–110%
- 2.5–19%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Stabaek
Probability
81.2%
Model confidence
81.2%
Stabaek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StabaekLLLLW
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SogndalDDLLD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
StabaekSogndal
83.3Attack56.1
57.6Defence22.7
63.6Form34.8
66.6Power39.5
4.50xG1.23