Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stabaek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (10%), 4-0 (10%), 5-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stabaek 2-3 Moss
Original prediction
Stabaek
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 68.7% | 70.7% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.37 | 17.1% | 15.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 6.43 | 14.3% | 13.6% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–110%
- 2.4–010%
- 3.5–19%
Predicted outcome
Stabaek
Probability
70.7%
Model confidence
70.7%
Stabaek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StabaekLWWWW
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MossLDLDL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
StabaekMoss
88.3Attack53.3
61.7Defence25.0
70.0Form31.7
71.6Power39.3
4.50xG1.04