St. Vincent / Grenadinesvs
Sint Maarten
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/6/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Vincent / Grenadines · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Vincent / Grenadines 4-0 Sint Maarten
Original prediction
St. Vincent / Grenadines
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.2% | 59.0% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 21.1% | 21.8% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 5.45 | 16.7% | 19.2% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
St. Vincent / Grenadines
Probability
59.0%
Model confidence
59.0%
St. Vincent / Grenadines has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80