St. Truidenvs
Union St. Gilloise
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 9/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union St. Gilloise · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise
Original prediction
Union St. Gilloise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 26.0% | 32.2% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.3% | 25.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 47.7% | 42.2% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Union St. Gilloise
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Union St. Gilloise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40