St. Truidenvs
Lommel United
COMPLETEDBelgium · Cup · 10/18/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Truiden · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Truiden 4-1 Lommel United
Original prediction
St. Truiden
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 14:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 65.2% | 41.8% | -23.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.4% | 25.3% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 6.37 | 14.4% | 32.9% | 18.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
St. Truiden
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
St. Truiden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40