St. Truidenvs
KVC Westerlo
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Truiden · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Truiden 0-2 KVC Westerlo
Original prediction
St. Truiden
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 55.8% | 53.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.2% | 21.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.44 | 21.1% | 25.9% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
St. Truiden
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
St. Truiden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20