St. Pauli IIvs
Weiche Flensburg
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nord · 10/25/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Weiche Flensburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-4 (8%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Pauli II 3-0 Weiche Flensburg
Original prediction
Weiche Flensburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.32 | 21.1% | 17.8% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.1% | 17.9% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 57.8% | 64.4% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–48%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Weiche Flensburg
Probability
64.4%
Model confidence
64.4%
Weiche Flensburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80