CupCup
Saturday, 1 August 202609:30Updated today
Ústí nad Orlicí

Ústí nad Orlicí

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D
vs
09:30
Svitavy

Svitavy

Away
L
Stadion TJ Jiskra
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
Svitavy(46%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Win probability
Ústí nad Orlicí
31%
Draw
22%
Svitavy
46%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Ústí nad Orlicí
94
Svitavy
34
Defence
Ústí nad Orlicí
6
Svitavy
27
Momentum
Ústí nad Orlicí
33
Svitavy
0
Danger (xG)
Ústí nad Orlicí
2.70
Svitavy
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.75 xG for Ústí nad Orlicí and 2.26 xG for Svitavy — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Svitavy holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Ústí nad Orlicí's Attack Score (94) exceeds Svitavy's Defensive Stability (27), and Svitavy's attack (34) similarly tests Ústí nad Orlicí's defence (6). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 4.01 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Ústí nad Orlicí's Attack Score (94) vs Svitavy's Defensive Stability (27) and Svitavy's attack (34) vs Ústí nad Orlicí's defence (6) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Ústí nad Orlicí)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Svitavy)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Ústí nad Orlicí)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Svitavy)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Ústí nad OrlicíÚstí nad Orlicí
D
SvitavySvitavy
L

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
Ústí nad Orlicí31%
Draw22%
Svitavy46%

Svitavy leads with 46% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Svitavy Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2

Ústí nad Orlicí host Svitavy in Cup. Ústí nad Orlicí have recorded DWDLDW in recent matches while Svitavy arrive with a run of LLDWWL.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.26 expected goals for Svitavy against 1.75 for Ústí nad Orlicí — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Ústí nad Orlicí have averaged 1.69 goals per game recently while Svitavy have managed 2.37. Svitavy have been the more prolific side — a factor the model weighs in its Svitavy win projection.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Ústí nad Orlicí have won 2 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Svitavy carry the stronger underlying metrics, Ústí nad Orlicí's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Svitavy are generating a clear xG advantage — 2.26 projected against 1.75 for Ústí nad Orlicí. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.52 is the clearest signal in the model that Svitavy are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Svitavy's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Ústí nad Orlicí defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Svitavy fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Svitavy have been conceding 2.47 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Ústí nad Orlicí

Ústí nad Orlicí

D
@ Velké Hamry
16 May 2026
33
Svitavy

Svitavy

L
vs Chrudim II
17 May 2026
12

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Ústí nad Orlicí vs Svitavy?

GoalVio's model predicts Svitavy to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Ústí nad Orlicí vs Svitavy?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Ústí nad Orlicí vs Svitavy?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ústí nad Orlicí vs Svitavy?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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