Ústí nad Labemvs
Karviná
COMPLETEDCzech-Republic · FNL · 10/23/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karviná · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ústí nad Labem 1-3 Karviná
Original prediction
Karviná
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.4% | 33.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.1% | 28.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.5% | 38.6% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Karviná
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Karviná has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20