FAI CupFAI Cup
Friday, 17 July 2026Last updated 12:35
St Mochta's

St Mochta's

Home
L
13
Full time
Dundalk

Dundalk

Away
W
Oriel Park
GoalVio prediction
47% confidence
St Mochta's(47%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Dundalk
Win probability
St Mochta's
47%
Draw
23%
Dundalk
31%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
St Mochta's
34
Dundalk
94
Defence
St Mochta's
6
Dundalk
66
Momentum
St Mochta's
0
Dundalk
100
Danger (xG)
St Mochta's
0.90
Dundalk
2.70
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (St Mochta's)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Dundalk)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (St Mochta's)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Dundalk)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
St Mochta'sSt Mochta's
LW
DundalkDundalk
WLLLW

Probability breakdown

47% confidence
St Mochta's47%
Draw23%
Dundalk31%

St Mochta's leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

St Mochta's head into this in FAI Cup fixture at Oriel Park in mixed form (L), while Dundalk arrive in mixed form (W). St Mochta's have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Dundalk over 1 games.

Tactically, Dundalk hold the edge. Their elite attack (94/100) is pitted against a vulnerable St Mochta's defence (6/100), while St Mochta's's attack faces a solid Dundalk backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

St Mochta's have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per home match. Dundalk have won 1 of their last 2 away fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

Dundalk have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects St Mochta's to win with 47% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: St Mochta's 4686%, Draw 2260%, Dundalk 3054%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

St Mochta's 0Draws 01 Dundalk
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
17 Jul 2026
St Mochta's
L13
Dundalk

Recent form

St Mochta's

St Mochta's

L
vs Dundalk
17 Jul 2026
13
W
@ Wayside Celtic
15 May 2026
43
Dundalk

Dundalk

W
@ St Mochta's
17 Jul 2026
31
L
vs Drogheda United
10 Jul 2026
12
L
@ Shelbourne
3 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Waterford
26 Jun 2026
23
W
vs Shamrock Rovers
15 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win St Mochta's vs Dundalk?

GoalVio's model predicts St Mochta's to win with 47% confidence.

What is the predicted score for St Mochta's vs Dundalk?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in St Mochta's vs Dundalk?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in St Mochta's vs Dundalk?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more