Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dundee · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ST Mirren 2-1 Dundee
Original prediction
Dundee
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.5% | 28.6% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.1% | 26.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 31.5% | 45.0% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Dundee
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Dundee has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ST MirrenLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DundeeDWWLD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ST MirrenDundee
33.3Attack48.1
37.0Defence63.0
37.0Form51.9
38.3Power56.2
0.81xG1.70