Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celtic · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ST Mirren 1-2 Celtic
Original prediction
Celtic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.26 | 15.0% | 29.7% | 14.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.68 | 20.1% | 25.5% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 65.0% | 44.8% | -20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Celtic
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Celtic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ST MirrenWDLWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CelticWWLWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
ST MirrenCeltic
58.3Attack91.7
75.0Defence83.3
83.3Form100.0
75.3Power91.2
1.26xG1.37