St. Luciavs
Guadeloupe
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Lucia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Lucia 3-0 Guadeloupe
Original prediction
St. Lucia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 32.3% | 37.5% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.4% | 25.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.3% | 37.0% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
St. Lucia
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
St. Lucia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 16 · avg 1.20/3.20
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60