Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Lucia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Lucia 5-2 Bermuda
Original prediction
St. Lucia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.9% | 46.3% | 15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 25.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 42.1% | 28.7% | -13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
St. Lucia
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
St. Lucia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
St. LuciaLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
BermudaLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
St. LuciaBermuda
55.6Attack44.4
66.7Defence50.0
55.6Form44.4
58.8Power48.2
1.87xG1.05