St. Louis Cityvs
Toronto FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Louis City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FC
Original prediction
St. Louis City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 58.1% | 60.5% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.20 | 22.3% | 19.3% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.76 | 19.7% | 20.2% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
St. Louis City
Probability
60.5%
Model confidence
60.5%
St. Louis City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00