St. Kitts and Nevisvs
Grenada
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/29/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Kitts and Nevis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Kitts and Nevis 3-0 Grenada
Original prediction
St. Kitts and Nevis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 30.7% | 39.3% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.2% | 25.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.1% | 35.4% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
St. Kitts and Nevis
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
St. Kitts and Nevis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00