League CupLeague Cup
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 10:01
ST Johnstone

ST Johnstone

Home
W
30
Full time
Morton

Morton

Away
L
McDiarmid Park
GoalVio prediction
52% confidence
ST Johnstone(52%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
ST Johnstone
52%
Draw
35%
Morton
13%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
ST Johnstone
73
Morton
9
Defence
ST Johnstone
91
Morton
27
Momentum
ST Johnstone
100
Morton
0
Danger (xG)
ST Johnstone
1.80
Morton
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (ST Johnstone)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Morton)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (ST Johnstone)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Morton)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
W
MortonMorton
L

Probability breakdown

52% confidence
ST Johnstone52%
Draw35%
Morton13%

ST Johnstone leads with 52% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

ST Johnstone head into this in League Cup fixture at McDiarmid Park in mixed form (W), while Morton arrive in mixed form (L). ST Johnstone have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Morton over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. ST Johnstone's strong attack (73/100) faces a vulnerable Morton defence (27/100), while Morton's attack is up against a watertight ST Johnstone backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in ST Johnstone's favour.

ST Johnstone have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Morton have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between ST Johnstone and Morton in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects ST Johnstone to win with 52% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: ST Johnstone 5179%, Draw 3500%, Morton 1321%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

ST Johnstone

ST Johnstone

W
@ Linlithgow Rose
14 Jul 2026
20
Morton

Morton

L
@ East Fife
14 Jul 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win ST Johnstone vs Morton?

GoalVio's model predicts ST Johnstone to win with 52% confidence.

What is the predicted score for ST Johnstone vs Morton?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in ST Johnstone vs Morton?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in ST Johnstone vs Morton?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more