ST Johnstonevs
Falkirk
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ST Johnstone · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ST Johnstone 1-1 Falkirk
Original prediction
ST Johnstone
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.6% | 45.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.9% | 27.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 27.5% | 27.5% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
ST Johnstone
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
ST Johnstone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20