ST Johnstonevs
Dundee Utd
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ST Johnstone · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ST Johnstone 1-1 Dundee Utd
Original prediction
ST Johnstone
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 35.7% | 41.5% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.2% | 26.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.1% | 31.6% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
ST Johnstone
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
ST Johnstone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80