St. George Saintsvs
Northern Tigers
COMPLETEDAustralia · New South Wales NPL · 9/12/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northern Tigers · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. George Saints 3-1 Northern Tigers
Original prediction
Northern Tigers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.7% | 31.4% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.9% | 27.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.18 | 28.4% | 41.1% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Northern Tigers
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Northern Tigers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80