St. Andrewsvs
Santa Lucía
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 9/18/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Lucía · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Andrews 1-1 Santa Lucía
Original prediction
Santa Lucía
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 32.9% | 33.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 27.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 40.7% | 39.5% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Santa Lucía
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Santa Lucía has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60