St. Andrewsvs
Mgarr United
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mgarr United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Andrews 0-2 Mgarr United
Original prediction
Mgarr United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.24 | 27.7% | 32.2% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.1% | 27.0% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.2% | 40.8% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Mgarr United
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Mgarr United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00