SSVg Velbertvs
SC St. Tönis
COMPLETEDGermany · Oberliga - Niederrhein · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SSVg Velbert · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SSVg Velbert 3-2 SC St. Tönis
Original prediction
SSVg Velbert
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.2% | 45.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 21.2% | 24.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.6% | 30.1% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
SSVg Velbert
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
SSVg Velbert has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20