SSV Ulm 1846vs
FC 08 Homburg
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - SudWest · 10/25/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC 08 Homburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SSV Ulm 1846 1-1 FC 08 Homburg
Original prediction
FC 08 Homburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.04 | 22.3% | 28.0% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 22.8% | 27.2% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 1.64 | 54.9% | 44.9% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
FC 08 Homburg
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
FC 08 Homburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40