Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SS Reyes 0-0 Numancia
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.9% | 35.1% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.4% | 30.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.7% | 34.3% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.98 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.6%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SS ReyesWWLDW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NumanciaWWWWD
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SS ReyesNumancia
50.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power88.7
0.92xG1.10