Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Djibouti · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 35.6% | 36.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.9% | 27.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 37.6% | 36.6% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Djibouti
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Djibouti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sri LankaLWWWD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DjiboutiWLLLD
GF 2 · GA 18 · avg 0.40/3.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Sri LankaDjibouti
75.0Attack100.0
66.7Defence66.7
75.0Form100.0
70.4Power91.7
1.50xG1.50