SpVgg Greuther Fürthvs
1. FC Heidenheim
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/6/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Heidenheim · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim
Original prediction
1. FC Heidenheim
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.9% | 37.8% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.4% | 24.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 41.7% | 38.0% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Heidenheim
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
1. FC Heidenheim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 14 · GA 19 · avg 2.80/3.80