SpVgg Greuther Fürthvs
1. FC Magdeburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/18/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Magdeburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg
Original prediction
1. FC Magdeburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 32.1% | 33.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.4% | 23.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 42.5% | 43.0% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.68 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Magdeburg
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
1. FC Magdeburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40