Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgan · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sporty are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Burgan are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Burgan hold a 15.4-point power-rating edge (22.7 v 38.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the Division 1, while Burgan holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burgan
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
13.2%
Burgan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00