GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/3/2025, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Gremio · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1

Highconfidence

Sportivo Luqueno are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Gremio are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Gremio hold a 21.8-point power-rating edge (31.9 v 53.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Gremio holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Gremio

Probability

47.7%

Model confidence

47.7%

Gremio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sportivo LuquenoWLWLD

GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GremioWDDLD

GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sportivo LuquenoGremio
19.0Attack41.7
47.6Defence70.8
19.0Form45.8
31.9Power53.6
0.59xG1.23
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