Sportivo Luquenovs
Deportivo Recoleta
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Profesional - Clausura · 9/20/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sportivo Luqueno · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportivo Luqueno 1-0 Deportivo Recoleta
Original prediction
Sportivo Luqueno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.7% | 44.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.7% | 22.5% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.6% | 32.9% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sportivo Luqueno
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Sportivo Luqueno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00