Sportivo Luquenovs
Cerro Porteno
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Profesional - Clausura · 10/10/2026, 10:20:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerro Porteno · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportivo Luqueno 0-3 Cerro Porteno
Original prediction
Cerro Porteno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.21 | 21.8% | 22.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.0% | 26.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 51.2% | 51.0% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Cerro Porteno
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Cerro Porteno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20