Sportivo Carapeguávs
Resistencia
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sportivo Carapeguá · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportivo Carapeguá 1-2 Resistencia
Original prediction
Sportivo Carapeguá
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 08:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 42.6% | 39.5% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.0% | 27.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.4% | 33.1% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Sportivo Carapeguá
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Sportivo Carapeguá has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40