Sportivo Carapeguávs
Paraguari AC
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 9/4/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sportivo Carapeguá · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportivo Carapeguá 2-3 Paraguari AC
Original prediction
Sportivo Carapeguá
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.6% | 37.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 29.8% | 28.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.6% | 33.9% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Sportivo Carapeguá
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Sportivo Carapeguá has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20