Sportivo Carapeguávs
Deportivo Capiata
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/2/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sportivo Carapeguá · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportivo Carapeguá 1-1 Deportivo Capiata
Original prediction
Sportivo Carapeguá
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.0% | 38.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.6% | 29.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.3% | 31.8% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Sportivo Carapeguá
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Sportivo Carapeguá has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60