Sportivo Carapeguávs
Benjamín Aceval
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 9/10/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benjamín Aceval · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportivo Carapeguá 2-0 Benjamín Aceval
Original prediction
Benjamín Aceval
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 29.2% | 21.3% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.6% | 23.0% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 44.3% | 55.7% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Benjamín Aceval
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Benjamín Aceval has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80