Sporting Lagosvs
Barau FC
COMPLETEDNigeria · NPFL · 9/26/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barau FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Lagos 1-1 Barau FC
Original prediction
Barau FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.5% | 34.6% | -16.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.3% | 28.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.48 | 20.2% | 36.9% | 16.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Barau FC
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Barau FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sporting LagosWLWLD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Barau FCWDWDW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Sporting LagosBarau FC
50.0Attack53.3
50.0Defence86.7
50.0Form73.3
50.8Power72.4
0.92xG1.28