Sporting Lagosvs
Abia Warriors
COMPLETEDNigeria · NPFL · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting Lagos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Lagos 0-2 Abia Warriors
Original prediction
Sporting Lagos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.6% | 49.7% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.1% | 27.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.21 | 17.3% | 22.8% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Sporting Lagos
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Sporting Lagos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00