Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Portland Timbers
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/11/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Timbers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers
Original prediction
Portland Timbers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 35.0% | 30.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.7% | 26.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 41.3% | 43.9% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Portland Timbers
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Portland Timbers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40