GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 4/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3

Highconfidence

Sporting JAX are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tampa Bay Rowdies are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 43.2-point power-rating edge (25.1 v 68.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.0% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Probability

79.0%

Model confidence

79.0%

Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sporting JAXLLDLL

GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Tampa Bay RowdiesWWWWW

GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Sporting JAXTampa Bay Rowdies
40.4Attack63.2
10.5Defence66.7
14.0Form71.9
25.1Power68.3
0.76xG3.07
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