Sporting JAXvs
Louisville City
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/21/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Louisville City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting JAX 0-2 Louisville City
Original prediction
Louisville City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.32 | 12.5% | 13.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.7% | 16.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 69.9% | 70.2% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Louisville City
Probability
70.2%
Model confidence
70.2%
Louisville City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80